3 Reasons For Stocks To Fall Starting In May 2020

by Chart Analysis

01

May, 2020

After a record-setting sell-off in the markets that drove equities deep into bear-market territory, prices spent the last four or five weeks staging a record-setting rally – one that hasn’t been seen since 1987.

But, it might be nearing the time to let the fat lady sing.

There are three reasons driving my outlook for this:

REASON #1: Seasonality.

There is a well defined seasonal tendency for weakness in the US stock markets between the months of May and October.

REASON #2:  Trend

We’re still in a down-trend.  Despite this massive rally, prices are still below the 200 period moving average and major resistance points have not been exceeded yet.

REASON #3: Chart Resistance

Lets take a look at our charts…

 

ES: WEEKLY CHART

ES FUTURES Weekly Upper End Of Range - Trading Coach - Learn To Trade
Chart images provided by Tradestation Charting Software

ES: DAILY CHART

ES FUTURES Daily Wedge - Trading Coach - Learn To Trade

ANALYSIS

The weekly chart is sporting a well defined and massive rectangle.  Depending on where you want to draw the beginning point, the rectangle is between 2 and 3 years in the making.

The rally over the last four weeks have simply taken us back to the upper end of it – and into major resistance.

The rally also has taken on the shape of a rising wedge on the daily charts.

The combination of the two patterns have given us an interesting and potentially lucrative short trade setup.

THE TRADE

The trade itself is pretty simple – we’ll use our basic breakout strategy.  Wait for the first bar to close outside the lower trend-line and enter on the close of that bar.  Place a stop above any bar that is inside the wedge and higher than our entry price.

The target, frankly, should be a full retest of the lows.

The risk-reward of this trade is one that you should be salivating over!

If it sets up properly. 

WHAT IF IT DOESN’T WORK?

It is possible the trade itself gets stopped out while the thesis behind the trade remains sound.  If that happens, we’ll simply have to find another entry point or retry the trade if the wedge pattern is still intact.  It might take two or three attempts to catch this next down-wave.  But there’s enough profit to be made that it would be worth taking a few swings at it if it comes to that.

ES likely to drop in May - Learn to trade with an experienced trading coach

Stocks not looking so great.

Photograph provided by shutterstock.com

Wrap Up

Hold your horses, be patient and let the trade come to you.  With three independent and unrelated signals coming together this has the potential to be a good trade.  But no matter how good a trade might look, don’t forget risk-control basics – enter your stop and respect it when it triggers!

PS: don’t forget – if you have questions about the techniques used in this article, a simple 1 hour technical analysis coaching session can get all your questions answered!

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